Donington park btcc 2017

The opening round of the 2017 British Touring Car Championship proved beyond any doubt that this was the year that the series would reaffirm itself as one of the greatest anywhere in the world. Raging unpredictability was the order of the day; Jeff Smith qualified pole, Turkington & Neal lasted about 30ft into race one and Subaru finished no higher than 12th on race day, to name but a few.

With 23 of the 32 drivers scoring points in the opening weekend, Brands Hatch was the affirmation we all needed that 2017 would be one of the closest and most competitive in the championship's history. It is only a few days until the series takes to the tarmac at Donington Park. After the scintillating showdown at Brands Hatch, what kind of eccentric fool would dare predict what will happen at Donington?

...this eccentric fool that's who.

I WILL HAVE MY VENGEANCE IN THIS LIFE OR THE NEXT

Take a second if you will to examine the featured image I have used for this article. No single image from Brands Hatch better reflects the central focus of this article than that. The opening race weekend was as much about success as it was about disappointment; many of the teams that once dominated the front of the grid slipped surprisingly towards the back. Perhaps its proof of the development of other teams over the winter.

Either way, I believe that there will be a few teams heading to Donington with a point to prove. Despite some promising results, Motorbase will be hoping to return to their winning ways. Mat Jackson has for too long been the bridesmaid of the BTCC; one day he will be the bride he deserves to be.

BTC Norlin Racing showed initial promise at the Donington test, but their performance slipped come race day at Brands Hatch. A weekend's best of 14th has hinted of future success for the Chevrolet, but there is work that needs to be done. But with the strong line up of Smiley and BTCC regular Newsham, it's only a matter of time before the strong finishes flow thick and fast.

However, its Subaru and MG that have the real work to do. Combining both bad luck and a lack of performance, both teams suffered a truly abysmal weekend at Brands Hatch. Donington has traditionally been a happy hunting ground for MG, which will be a further confidence boost for Triple 8.

The teams have both given their own reasons for their disappointment, but one thing is for sure, there will be an added wind beneath their wings; none more so than the infamously iconic Jason Plato, who took time out of his opening race weekend for a date with the pit wall. Perhaps that'll teach him not to claim his car will 'blow the doors off' the competition, just in case it back fires. Plato has always thrived in the position of the underdog; look what he achieved with Seat and Chevrolet in years gone by. If the team conquered their weight balance demons, expect to see the Subaru team fighting back at the front.

CLASH OF THE TOURING CAR TITANS

I said it in a previous article of mine; the 2017 title will most likely be the ultimate showdown between not only two legendary manufacturers, but two legendary drivers. BMW vs Honda, Turkington vs Shedden. They are, in my humble opinion, the two greatest drivers of the modern era, in the prime of their careers, and in machinery they are both ultra-comfortable with. This truly is a recipe for one of the tastiest dishes anyone could ever cook up.

On the one hand, Shedden is riding a wave of success after Brands Hatch, currently defending his title with the series lead. While on the other hand, Colin Turkington is back in a WSR BMW and in the position that fans love him most, charging from behind.

Oh, and does anyone remember what happened in 2014 when it was Turkington vs Shedden for the final race win of the day at Donington?

Oh yes, I'm excited too.

ONE MERCEDES MAN CAN CHANGE HIS STARS

Throughout the last few years of the championship, Adam Morgan has been one of the most consistent drivers. For example in 2015 he was the only driver to rack up 30 finishes in 30 racers, that is no mean feat. Morgan has said he is targeting Independents glory in 2017, but I believe he could and should aim higher.

At Brands Hatch Adam achieved an average finish of 4th over the three rounds, an achievement bettered only by Gordon Shedden who achieved an average of 3rd (and 1/3 for the maths nerds like me out there with a love for accuracy). Last year's round at Donington was a disappointing affair for Morgan, so he will be looking to conquer his demons this year. Adam has become one of the most aggressive defensive drivers in the championship, so with a good qualifying expect to see at least a podium from the Mercedes man this weekend.

CAN TEAM HARD KEEP IT UP?

The team that impressed me more than any other at the opening round was the new-look Team Hard. For the first time, Mike Epps achieved a top 10 in all three races, something that some of the regular race winners struggled to acquire. Furthermore, Jake Hill proved his abilities in an astounding defense against a storming Colin Turkington in the second race at Brands Hatch.

However, I do have my worries. The key to a successful touring car driver is a delicate symphony of consistency, patience, aggression and restraint. Knowing when to attack and when to hold your position can make or break a championship. Without that balance, you're either swallowed up by the field or over-aggressive and end your day in the gravel trap.

I would never call into question the talent of Epps and Hill (they are both stunning drivers) but they don't have the same experience at the top end as other drivers do. Jake Hill was given a taste of the top end in 2016 and often suffered the consequences.

Despite all of this, I am in no doubt that Team Hard will be in contention for more top 10s to add to their collection. After all, under the control of Team BMR, the Passat CCs were a dominant force at Donington, with wins for both Plato and Turkington and very nearly for Aron Smith if not for his coming together with Josh Cook in the Chevrolet.

ARE VAUXHALL YET TO REACH MAX POWER?

Tom Chilton enjoyed a successful return to the championship at Brands, picking up a podium and two strong finishes. However, it was while watching the final race where Chilton was up front that I noticed something. It appeared that the Vauxhall did not enjoy the same raw pace as the BMW. Unlike WSR however, the Vauxhall is brand new for Power Maxed Racing, meaning there is still room for development. I don't believe that the Vauxhall is yet up to full speed (or Max Power, as it were).

On top of that, Senna Proctor is still learning the ropes of the BTCC and will only improve as the season goes on. My thinking is that Donington will be another strong weekend for Power Maxed, but it will be a few more rounds until they are fighting for wins on outright pace alone.

GOOD LUCK TO THE BOOKIES

A few years ago, making predictions for race winners or even the top 5 was straight forward. It was simple really, throw in some BMR, WSR and Honda and you would be about bang on the money, save a few surprises. If the opening round at Brands Hatch was any to go by however, the balance has been thrown off its hypothetical axis.

We are seeing previously mid-pack teams taking it to the top (look at Handy Motorsport, Maximum Motorsport and of course Team Hard) and challenging the establishment. Thanks to the latest round of regulation changes (RML parts and the such) the performance gap has been brought ever closer. We are now seeing a grid where at least half the entries have race winning potential. Long gone will be the days of runaway leaders (although Tingram gave it a pretty good go in the opening race).

If there was any negative consequence of the performance gap decrease it will be the inevitable rise in on-track collisions. Let's say you have 10 cars with the ability to take the race win, eventually they all will try and take the same bit of tarmac at the same time. After all, look at Neal and Turkington, then Plato and Simpson at Brands Hatch.

Predicting the results of Donington is a challenge, but I sense that BMW will use the opportunity to take a stranglehold of the championship. Based on the performances by the BMW team throughout Brands, they are the safest (word here used loosely) bet at taking the wins and the championship lead. Furthermore, if Tingram can repeat his ultra-fast starts and sensational qualifying, he may be an outside bet for taking the series lead.

While I'm here, just going to lay my cards on the table; I think soon we will see another Rob Austin win. The Handy Motorsport Toyota is more than on the pace so far, and following his race 2 disappointment, Rob will be out to bring himself into contention.

But this being the British Touring Car Championship, chances are my predictions won't just be wrong, but embarrassingly wrong. But that's Chaos Theory in action for you